By Leni Spooner, creator of Between the Lines.
Introduction: Why I’m Writing This Story
Geopolitics isn’t something most Canadians follow day-to-day. We’re more likely to talk about hockey trades than trade wars. But the truth is, the decisions being made in Beijing, Washington, Delhi, or Brasil ripple all the way to our grocery aisles, our mortgage rates, and our paycheques.
Mainstream Canadian media doesn’t always connect the dots for a general audience. And on social media? Forget it. There, geopolitics is reduced to memes and shouting matches. What’s missing is the middle ground: clear, sober explanations that ordinary Canadians can use to understand how the world is shifting under our feet.
That’s why I’m writing this piece. Because while we’ve been focused on U.S. tariffs or domestic affordability debates, something bigger is happening: the rise of BRICS, a loose but powerful bloc of emerging economies challenging the Western order. At the same time, our largest trading partner — the United States — is headed into another storm of protectionism under Donald Trump.
The question Canadians need to ask is this: in a world that’s fragmenting into blocs, are we anchoring ourselves wisely, or are we risking our sovereignty by tying ourselves too tightly to an unpredictable neighbour?
Part 1: BRICS 101 – More Than Just an Acronym
When economists first coined the term BRIC in the early 2000s, it was shorthand for four big emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India, China. South Africa joined in 2010, turning BRIC into BRICS.
But what started as a clever investor acronym has turned into a geopolitical project. BRICS is now a formal intergovernmental organization with summits, working groups, and even its own bank: the New Development Bank (NDB), designed to finance infrastructure without relying on the World Bank or IMF.
And BRICS is growing. In recent years, it expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates. Together, the bloc represents:
- Over 25% of global GDP
- Nearly half of the world’s population
- Enormous shares of global energy, food, and minerals
The group’s goals are straightforward, even if ambitious:
- Reform global governance to reflect a multipolar world, not one dominated by the G7.
- Build trade and financial systems less dependent on the U.S. dollar.
- Coordinate on commodities, technology, and development finance.
In short: BRICS wants to make it possible for countries to say “no thanks” to Western-led rules without being shut out of global markets.
Part 2: The U.S. Factor – Friend, Anchor, Risk
Canada’s economy is tied to the United States like few others in the world. Roughly 75% of our exports go south. Trucks cross the border every minute with auto parts, lumber, beef, and more. The USMCA (or CUSMA) agreement makes that flow smoother, and for decades Canadians have banked on this as a foundation of prosperity.
But an anchor can also become a tether. And nowhere is that clearer than when Washington changes its mood. We’ve lived through:
- Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs on national security grounds — against Canada, a NATO ally.
- The softwood lumber wars that never seem to end.
- Biden’s Buy American provisions, which froze Canadian firms out of procurement.
Now, Trump is back. And here’s the reality: under Donald Trump, there is no clear way to look at global trade as a whole — never mind BRICS, G7, or G20.
Trump treats trade less as policy and more as a transaction. Friends and foes alike are bargaining chips. He has already signalled that he wants a new renegotiation of USMCA in 2026. For Canada, that’s a flashing warning light: we could end up with an even more protectionist deal, tilted sharply toward U.S. industrial interests.
The risk isn’t just higher tariffs or tighter rules. It’s that Canada becomes locked into Washington’s mood swings. Stability becomes servitude. Sovereignty becomes subject to “whatever Trump wants” on any given day.
Part 3: How BRICS Complicates the Equation
At the very moment our U.S. relationship is becoming more volatile, BRICS is flexing its muscles.
Resource Power
BRICS members dominate global commodities: oil (Russia, UAE, Iran), food (Brazil, India), minerals (South Africa, Indonesia). Coordinated policy could shift global prices overnight. For Canada’s mining and agriculture sectors, that means competitors setting the rules.
Dollar Alternatives
For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the currency of global trade. But BRICS is experimenting with alternatives: local currency swaps, talk of a common settlement unit, and using the yuan for oil. If de-dollarization gains traction, the ripple effects will hit Canadian banks, pension funds, and the loonie itself.
Competing Supply Chains
China and India are pushing for parallel trade networks — energy pipelines, digital standards, ports. The goal is clear: a world where Western approval isn’t required. Canada, tied tightly to the U.S., risks being left out of these emerging systems.
Geopolitical Realities
BRICS isn’t united — India and China squabble, Brazil wants balance — but its very existence signals that the Western monopoly is over. A multipolar world is here, messy but real. And Canada hasn’t decided how to navigate it.
Part 4: Canada’s Strategic Dilemma
So what do we do? Canada faces three broad paths, none of them painless.
Option 1: Double Down on the U.S.
The case for: it’s efficient, familiar, and gives access to the world’s largest consumer market. Integration lowers costs for Canadian firms.
The case against: it makes us hostage to U.S. politics. Trump’s tariffs today, someone else’s ultimatums tomorrow. Identity and sovereignty risks grow as our policy space narrows.
Option 2: Diversify with Europe, Japan, CPTPP
Canada already has tools:
- CETA with the EU.
- CPTPP with Japan, Australia, Vietnam, and more.
The case for: diversification builds resilience and demonstrates Canadian independence. The EU is a wealthy market; Asia is a growing one.
The case against: regulatory hurdles are tough, and Canadian exporters often take the path of least resistance (south). Returns are slower, and it requires more strategic statecraft.
Option 3: Radical Realignment with BRICS?
It sounds implausible, but some analysts have floated the idea of Canada engaging BRICS more directly — or even joining.
The case for: a seat at the table of the rising bloc, leverage on resource coordination, potential insulation from U.S. bullying.
The case against: enormous. Joining BRICS could provoke U.S. sanctions, rupture Five Eyes intelligence ties, and split our alliances. For Canada, it’s more thought experiment than real policy option.
Part 5: The Multipolar Future – Risks and Opportunities
Here’s the hard truth: there is no stable anchor anymore.
- The U.S. is unpredictable, especially under Trump.
- BRICS is ambitious, but fragmented and experimental.
- The G7 and G20 are losing influence as blocs harden.
For Canada, that means we cannot simply tie ourselves to one mast and hope for calm seas.
But multipolarity isn’t only risk. It’s also opportunity. Canada has assets the world wants:
- Critical minerals needed for clean tech.
- Green energy expertise in hydro, nuclear, renewables.
- Agricultural exports with relatively high environmental standards.
- Middle-power diplomacy that can build bridges instead of walls.
A diversified trade strategy — messy, slower, but sovereign — may be the only way to keep Canada relevant and prosperous in this world of shifting blocs.
Conclusion: A Call for Clear-Eyed Choices
BRICS isn’t a sideshow. It’s a sign that the global order Canada grew up in is being rewritten. At the same time, Trump’s America is tearing up the rulebook of predictable trade.
Canadians face a choice. We can cling to the U.S., hoping stability outweighs volatility. Or we can take the harder road of diversification, building ties to Europe, Asia, and beyond, even if it means short-term pain.
What we can’t afford is to ignore the shifts — or to pretend that sovereignty can survive if we surrender it to convenience.
For Canada, the question isn’t whether to pick the U.S. or BRICS. The question is whether we’re willing to balance across many poles, protect our autonomy, and invest in the resilience that sovereignty requires.
Personal Reflection
I won’t pretend that deciphering all the ramifications of an increasingly multipolar world is anywhere near my pay grade. The global chessboard is complicated, and most of us are just trying to keep our own households afloat.
But thinking about where Canada fits — and where our governments are taking us — is absolutely within reach. That’s our job as citizens. And it’s exactly why Canadian taxpayers fund our opposition parties. We pay them to ask the hard questions, to pressure governments into clarity, and to shine light on the trade-offs we all need to understand.
Regrettably, in recent years opposition parties have seemed more interested in scoring partisan points in Question Period than in asking those important, serious questions. Pity that. Because hints at the direction we’re leaning, and a little honesty about our choices, would be awfully useful right about now.
BRICS: The Rise of a New Global Order?
This video provides an overview of the BRICS bloc and its goals, which is relevant to understanding the group’s global positioning.
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About the Author
Leni Spooner is a Canadian writer, researcher, and civic storyteller. She is the founder of Between the Lines | Kitchen Table Politics, a longform publication exploring how policy, economics, food systems, and everyday life intersect. Her work blends historical context with present-day analysis, helping readers see the deeper patterns that shape Canada’s choices — and the lives built around them.
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