Where Canada Stands When the World Shifts
By Leni Spooner, creator of Between the Lines.
Canada’s northern patrol aircraft symbolize a deeper truth: alliances shape what we can see — but autonomy shapes what we can do.
In Chapter 6, Prepared for Peace, we explored why readiness — from cyber to climate to logistics — has become the quiet foundation of peace in a fragile world.
This week, we turn outward.
What does it mean for Canada to choose its alliances, its leverage, and its limits in an era when the world is rearranging itself in real time?
Author’s Note
This chapter is part of A Quiet Reckoning — a longform civic series exploring how Canada built, drifted, and must now rebuild the foundations that hold a country together.
Canada’s alliances have always been part necessity, part identity. But as global power fractures, old arrangements no longer guarantee security — or influence. NATO is strained, AUKUS left Canada out entirely, the Arctic is contested, and the Indo-Pacific is now the centre of global strategy.
The question is no longer whether Canada belongs to alliances.
It’s what kind of country we want to be inside them.
Chapter 7
Alliances and Autonomy
Where Canada Stands When the World Shifts
Alliances and Autonomy
Where Canada Stands When the World Shifts
The world did not wait for Canada to choose its moment. In early 2024, tensions in the Middle East flared into open conflict between Israel and Iran, redrawing fault lines far beyond the region. Russia’s war on Ukraine hardened into a brutal war of attrition. By 2025, Russia had effectively converted its economy into a wartime engine—streamlining production, mobilizing workforce sectors, and nationalizing key industries in service of prolonged conflict. Analysts warn that such a pivot may prove difficult to reverse, entrenching Russia in a permanent war posture even if peace is negotiated.
China continued to assert itself in the Pacific, economically and militarily, while disinformation and cyber warfare became normalized instruments of state power. Amid this volatility, Canada—so often insulated by geography and history—faced a narrowing path between cooperation and sovereignty.
As old alliances rearm and new ones form, the stakes are no longer abstract. Canada’s traditional posture of quiet diplomacy and peacekeeping pride must now confront the twin realities of urgency and expectation. The question is not whether we will be part of the world’s reordering—but how prepared we are to shape our role in it.
1. Rebuilding from the Centre: NATO and NORAD
Canada remains a founding NATO member, yet one of its lowest spenders. The pressure to meet the alliance’s 2% defence spending benchmark has intensified sharply. As of June 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada would meet the 2% threshold by 2026, expediting the timeline under mounting geopolitical pressure.
Canada has pledged $38 billion over two decades to modernize NORAD, its continental defence agreement with the United States. This includes upgrading early-warning radar systems, Arctic surveillance, and command capabilities—critical infrastructure in an age of hypersonic missiles and great-power rivalry.
“There is a cost to being protected. And there is a cost to protecting ourselves. Either way, the bill is coming due.”
Yet capability gaps remain—from outdated submarines and aging aircraft to recruitment and retention issues. Critics argue Canada’s readiness is reactive, not strategic—still shaped by past assumptions of geopolitical calm.
2. The AUKUS Signal: Excluded and Exposed
When Australia, the UK, and the United States launched AUKUS—a defence pact focusing on nuclear submarine development and AI-enabled security—Canada was not invited. This was a notable shift. Canada, part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, had traditionally been seen as a core western ally. The exclusion from AUKUS highlighted Canada’s uncertain strategic posture.
Some policy analysts viewed the snub as a wake-up call: Canada may not be viewed as serious enough in defence terms to warrant inclusion. Others argued it offered a chance to redefine our approach on Canadian terms, focusing on non-military areas like cyber resilience, climate response, and logistics leadership.
3. Flashpoints Rising: From Ukraine to the Middle East
Russia’s war in Ukraine has galvanized NATO unity but stretched its long-term stamina. Canada has been a consistent supporter of Ukraine, contributing over $13 billion in military, humanitarian, and financial aid. But as the conflict drags on and Russia’s wartime economy entrenches itself, domestic pressures rise over sustainability and effectiveness.
Simultaneously, the sudden escalation between Israel and Iran in 2024—initially through missile strikes, then broader regional confrontations—forced Canada to revisit its military and diplomatic readiness. As of mid-2025, tensions have reached a new threshold, with Israel reportedly urging the U.S. to launch B-52 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites using the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)—a 30,000 lb bomb designed for hardened bunkers. This signals a dangerous shift toward direct great-power confrontation.
While Canada is not a military actor in the region, global implications are unavoidable:
- Supply chain volatility
- Refugee flows
- Cyber threats targeting allied networks
- Oil price spikes impacting Canadian consumers
4. The Pacific Front: China and the Indo-Pacific Strategy
Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in 2022, was its first serious reorientation toward the Asia-Pacific region in decades. It recognized the region as vital to Canada’s economic and strategic interests—and directly named China as an “increasingly disruptive global power.”
But implementation has been slow. Bilateral tensions with China over election interference, trade retaliation, and military surveillance continue to deepen. At the same time, Canada seeks to expand trade and technology ties with other Indo-Pacific nations, including Japan, South Korea, India, and ASEAN states.
5. Digital, Energy, and Arctic Sovereignty: Fragile Frontiers
Security today is not just measured in troops or treaties—it’s in who owns your infrastructure. And Canada’s sovereignty is increasingly shaped by questions of ownership:
Starlink is the backbone of connectivity in many northern communities—but it’s owned by SpaceX, a U.S. firm under the control of Elon Musk.
Port and rail logistics in some key regions depend on multinational firms headquartered outside Canada.
Semiconductor dependency leaves critical systems vulnerable to external supply disruptions.
Canada’s Arctic remains a prime vulnerability. As ice melts and navigation opens, both China and Russia have expressed interest in polar shipping lanes and military mapping. Canada’s assertion of Arctic sovereignty requires more than declarations—it needs ships, sensors, and relationships with Indigenous peoples who already know the land.
6. Between the Lines: Who Do We Want to Be?
Canada’s path forward cannot rest on alliances alone. In fact, sovereignty today may lie not in choosing between alliances—but in ensuring none of them define us entirely.
To remain a credible voice and a secure nation, Canada must:
- Invest in resilient, Canadian-owned infrastructure
- Deepen ties with democratic allies beyond the U.S.
- Reaffirm commitment to NORAD and NATO while setting clear national priorities
- Strengthen diplomatic and logistical tools, not just hard power
- Canada’s power has always been quiet, but it must no longer be passive.
If the 20th century defined us as peacekeepers, the 21st may define us as bridge-builders—between regions, between powers, and between sovereignty and solidarity.
Because in a world increasingly split into blocs, the ability to navigate the middle isn’t weakness.
It’s our strength.
This is Chapter 7 of A Quiet Reckoning — tracing how Canada’s postwar ambition gave way to drift, and how renewal now requires clarity about where we stand in a fracturing world.
Next Sunday: Chapter 8 — The Council at the End of the Road: Governance for a New Century
Start the series from the beginning or visit the Series Page.
Sources:
NATO Defence Expenditure Data (2024)
Government of Canada, NORAD Modernization Brief (2023)
Canadian Global Affairs Institute, “AUKUS and the Future of Canadian Defence Policy” (2022)
Global Affairs Canada Ukraine Response Reports (2022–2024)
International Crisis Group, Middle East Briefs (2024)
U.S. Department of Defense, MOP Overview (2023)
Government of Canada, Indo-Pacific Strategy (2022)
Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency (CanNor)
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Arctic Sovereignty Brief (2023)
Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “Russia’s Wartime Economy and Industrial Base” (2024)
Chapter 8: Rebuilding the Social Contract
About the Author
Leni Spooner is a Canadian writer, researcher, and civic storyteller. She is the founder of Between the Lines | Kitchen Table Politics, a longform publication exploring how policy, economics, food systems, and everyday life intersect. Her work blends historical context with present-day analysis, helping readers see the deeper patterns that shape Canada’s choices — and the lives built around them.
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